Broncos gain in wild card race

This was a great weekend for the Broncos as it relates to the wild card race. Going into the week, there were 3 teams sitting at 6-4 - Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Denver. Denver would have been out of the playoffs had the season ended (what a dumb cliche, i know). Pittsburgh and Jacksonville both lost this week leaving Denver atop the wild card standings. Of the three 5-5 teams - Baltimore, Miami, and Houston - only Baltimore won (beating Pittsburgh 20-17 in OT).

So, the standings sit:

Denver: 7-4
Baltimore: 6-5
Pittsburgh: 6-5
Jacksonville: 6-5
Miami: 5-6
Houston: 5-6
Tennesee: 5-6

Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh hold tie breakers over Denver by virtue of head to head. Jacksonville holds the tie-breaker (for now) by virtue of a better conference record.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh face each other one more time. Jacksonville faces Indianapolis and visits New England. With all of this in mind, I think Denver may be able to get in with 9 wins, but 10 wins should be pretty safe.

Broncos back in the win column with 26-6 victory over Giants

At least for one game, the Broncos that we had grown to know and love through 6 weeks, but had mysteriously disappeared since, were back.

The defense led the effort by forcing turnovers, pressuring Eli Manning, and entirely keeping the G-men out of the end-zone. The offense returned to life and put up 26 points - led by a great performance from Brandon Marshall, who made big catches all night including a 28 yard one handed grab which set up a 1 yard touchdown run by his arch nemesis - Knowshon Moreno.

The Broncos won the turnover battle 3-1. This was a huge factor in getting the defense off the field so it remained fresh in the second half. As a result, the fourth quarter belonged to Denver 10-0. The Giants only got 59 plays (versus 69 for Denver), keeping them under the 60 play mark in which many NFL experts believe to be the point which a defense is worn out. Washington ran 70 plays two weeks ago and San Diego ran 65 on Sunday and could have had lots more.

This was a good win for Denver. You can't complain about any win that breaks a four game winning streak. But, I don't think this shows us what kind of team Denver has. This was a matchup against two teams that were hot out of the gate but then tripped up badly. New York has now lost 5 out of 6 and it is historically difficult for the road team to win on Thanksgiving day games (unless visiting the Lions). I think New York was flat for this game and they really didn't put up much of a fight. They had a great chance to get back in the game in the second half after intercepting Kyle ORton but were never able to capitalize on the potential momentum swing. D. The Broncos took advantage of the hand they were dealt and won the game very convincingly, so they do get credit for that.

Denver is now 7-4 and still very much in the wild card picture. San Diego has Kansas City on Sunday and Cleveland next week so it seems likely they will be 9-3 and I don't think the division is realistically within Denver's grasp anymore.

Next up is a visit to Kansas City, a historically tough place for Denver to play. With Indianapolis looming the following week, Kansas City is a must win game.

Broncos Defense Keeping the Giants Guessing...

This may end up being a gimicky thing that teams game plan for, but it's interesting to watch the Broncos entire defense wait to set-up until the last minute - nobody is down in a three point stance and I think it is making it very difficult for Eli Manning to read the defense. It's certainly put the Giant's offense off-kilter, at least a little bit. Denver is in good shape going into the fourth quater, up 16-6, but the offense needs to get at least a few first downs on this drive and let the defense gets some rest.

No offensive points for Denver in fourth quarter for four consecutive games.

NFL Network Apologizes for Josh McDaniels

Josh McDaniels was caught cursing on television as he berated his offense for a second consecutive failure to score inside the red-zone against the Giants. The good news is that he was yelling at his own team, instead of trying to call out the other team.

In other news, what is the deal with all of the Broncos penalties tonight? That is not a sign of a well-coached team...

Dawkins calls a players only meeting

Brian Dawkins (who is questionable for Thursday's game against the Giants) called a players only meeting to address the recent 4 game slide and overall loss of confidence. Rumor is that the locker room is becoming a little bit toxic and the harmony and one-for-all mentality that this team seemed to have earlier in the year is now gone. Winning can mask a lot of problems while losing can expose a lot of cracks. The Broncos are losing now.

I would also be very curious to know how the season would have played out without the Queen City Miracle in week 1. Had Brandon Stokely (who has been strangely quiet since week 3 or so) not scored that game winning touchdown and Denver gone on to lose vs. Cincinatti, would the tail-spin we are seeing now have started in week 1?

It's a question we won't know the answer to, but a relevant question nonetheless because it strikes at the heart of Josh McDaniels' ability to lead a team. It may have been momentum, not leadership, which led to a 6-0 start. Now that the momentum is gone, we really need the leadership - that is what Brian Dawkins is probably hoping to provide.

Will Tennessee finish with more wins than Denver?

After its Monday night victory against the Texans, formerly 0-6 Tennessee is now 4-6 while formerly 6-0 Denver is now 6-4. Don't be surprised if Denver finishes behind Tennessee...

New York Giants - L
@ Kansas City - L
@ Indianapolis - L

Oakland -?

@ Philadelphia - L
Kansas City - W

Denver may struggle to finish 8-8. The team is unwraveling. Josh McDaniels is finally showing his youth and inexperience - sniping with the Chargers before the game was a huge blunder - more on that later. The defense is being worn out, similar to the 2006 edition of the Broncos. The offense is impotent.

Yikes! I think this blog may have to go back to its old name. McDaniels probably has done enough to deserve another year on the job, but this team is incredibly discouraging to watch over the last month. Could the first 6 weeks have been a mirage? Cincinatti was a lucky win - undeniably so. Oakland and Cleveland were beaten badly - they are bad teams but Denver took care of business. Dallas arguably was totally in control of the game and made some mistakes to let Denver back in it. New England was not at full strength with an injured Randy Moss and Tom Brady still getting his sea legs back after missing all of last year. Winning in San Diego was a good win.

What is to become of this Denver team?

(And, where are all the people who called me horrible names 4 weeks ago... strangely silent. Stay tuned to this blog for a retrospective of the comments I got when Denver was 6-0.)

San Diego Chargers Destroy Denver Broncos - 32-3

The San Diego Chargers dominated every facet of the game in defeating the Denver Broncos 32-3 at Invesco Field today. San Diego controlled the game from the start. Denver's defense was not able to stop Philip Rivers, who was 14/15 in the first half. Denver, on the other hand, got terrible quarterback play. Chris Simms, who had started in lieu of an injured Kyle Orton, was horrendous again and gave up a fumble on his first pass attempt, stalling the Denver drive that had been effective on the ground. After a few more ineffective drives, Kyle Orton was put in the game and gave Denver a spark. However, Knowshon Moreno fumbled the ball at the 1 inch line and San Diego recovered in the end zone. After a 3 and out for San Diego, Orton threw an interception on the next pass and San Diego went into the half down 13-0. The defense stopped the Chargers on the first possession of the second half and the offense again drove down the field, this time settling for a field goal. It seemed like Denver had the momentum but Josh McDaniels called for an onside kick which San Diego recovered at its own 41 and quickly went in for a touchdown to go up 20-3. Denver couldn't get anything going after that, and further Kyle Orton looked bad, throwing several passes which probably should have been intercepted.



This loss puts Denver into second place in the AFC West. Perhaps worse, the team is now in a very difficult looking wild card race. Pittsburgh is also 6-4 (after its loss to K.C. today) but holds the tie-breaker. Jacksonville is also 6-4 and holds the tie-breaker based upon its better conference record. Houston sits at 5-4 with a Monday night game against the Titans and both the Ravens (who hold the tie-breaker vs. Denver) and Miami loom at 5-5. After starting the season 6-0, if the season ended today, the Denver Broncos would not be in the playoffs.



Denver looks like a bad football team at this point in the season. Four consecutive blow-out losses have left everybody scratching their heads about what went wrong.



The New York Giants, who found their way back into the win column today against Atlanta, come into Denver for a Thanksgiving night game on Thursday. That will be another tough game for Denver. After that, Denver visits a Kansas City team that just handed the Steelers a loss and then undefeated Indianapolis. Denver is staring 6-7 in the face.

Denver is now -1 in points differential for the year...

As it stands now, denver has scored 170 points on the season and given up 171. After week 6, Denver was +67...

McDaniels' and Broncos' Onside Kick

Josh McDaniels called for the onside kick in the middle of the third quarter, but it was recovered by San Diego. This marks an interesting strategic shift from the Mike Shanahan Era to the Josh McDaniels era. Shanahan rarely, if ever, tried special teams trick plays.

I don't like this gamble by McDaniels (especially because it didn't pay off). Denver had the momentum and the defense had a few good series in a row. The missed onside kick put the pressure back on the defense and returned the momentem to San Diego, who is now inches away from taking a 20-3 lead.

Why didn't Kyle Orton start?

It is simply amazing the difference Kyle Orton has made. Even the defense seems to have gotten a lift and we are now 7 yards away from a touchdown that will put the Broncos back in the game.

If Orton has been able to be effective, it raises the question as to why Josh McDaniels did not start him to begin with. Probably, Orton is still hurt and McDaniels was hoping Simms could be effective and give Orton just a few more days to recover. Simms wasn't effective, so Orton was forced into service.

Kyle Orton Warming Up...

It looks like Chris Simms may have been benched. Kyle Orton is warming up. He allegedly was only available for emergency duty. Simms must be embarrassed that his poor play has constituted such an emergency. Maybe this can spark the team.

Denver should sign Jeff Garcia to come in as the backup - we need a credible solution and Simms isn't it.

The Broncos Defense...

... is not that good. It's time we have to accept it. While the defense played incredibly well the first 5-6 games of the season, it has been terrible since. Today, San Diego is on pace for 30+ points.

Last season, at least we had a hope that the offense could match the points given up. This season (and particularly today with Chris Simms under center), I really don't have the sense that this is possible.

Do other teams just have a handle on what the Broncos want to do defensively and have figured out how to combat it? This season could get away from us very quickly if these problems aren't resolved. The Giants game is 4 days away...

San Diego Runs the "Wild Frog" formation...How Lame.

Since it seems unlikely that Denver is going to beat San Diego today, I'm going to resort to mocking the Chargers for other things not related to the game. First, I'll start with the Chargers' version of the wildcat offensive formation. While Denver's version has a cool name, the "Wild Horses Formation", the Chargers version is pathetically named as the "Wild Frog Formation". Denver stuffed the wild frog the first two times they saw it in the first quarter.

"Wild Horses" is a perfect fit for the Broncos. "Wild Frog" has nothing to do with the Chargers. How about the "Wild Thunder" or something more relevant and tough sounding? C'mon San Diego! You may very well win today, but your gimicky offensive formation has a really dumb name.

Chris Simms fumbles on first pass attempt

Tyler Polumbus was beaten and Chris Simms had the ball knocked out of his hand on the very first pass attempt of the game. Simms had time to throw but held it too long. The fumble stalled what had been a very effective drive on the ground.

That is a bad omen.

Chris Simms Starting QB vs San Diego

Chris Simms just took the field as the Broncos starting QB against the Chargers today. It will be imperative that he play more effectively this week, and after a week of practice snaps he should at least be better.

On the first possession, Denver has only run the ball so far, and done so effectively.

Kyle Shanahan Rumored to be Replacing Dan Hawkins as head coach of the Buffs

It was reported (pure speculation) that Kyle Shanahan may be taking over the head coaching job from Dan Hawkins next season and would be bringing Mike Shanahan along as offensive coordinator.

This is complete conjecture but a pretty interesting rumor and it would be pretty nice for Shanahan fans who would like to see him stay in the area. Pat Bowlen must be nervous because he'd be on the hood for Mike Shanahan's salary since the college offensive coordinator salary off-set would be negligible.

San Diego ties Denver atop afc west

San Diego leads 28-16 in the fourth quarter against philadelphia;
pending disaster, they will join Denver atop the afc west. It took
Denver exactly 4 weeks to give up it's 3.5 game lead over the chargers
and the division title now seems very far away...

Josh mcdaniels needs to right the ship asap

Denver broncos fall to Washington redskins

Denver's 2nd half woes continued today as washinton outscored them
13-0 to win the game 27-17. Denver had the ball for fewer than 10
minutes in the second half as most of it's possessions wre very
short. Chris simms was absolutely terrible in his first significant
action in 4 years. It's now obvious why mcdaniels declared orton the
starter so early in the preseason.

I would guess orton will return next week, but after not putting the
game away in the first half against a bad redskins team, will it even
matter against San diego?

Are the broncos in the midst of a complete collapse?

Washington leads 24-17 with 2:44 to go

Denver is in trouble... 6-3 looks pretty likely now.

Simms throws an int..

Denver is now losing the turnover battle 2-0 after chris simms
inexplicably threw the ball deep into triple coverage...

It's up to the defense...

... I don't expect any more offensive points this game; the offense
looks pretty basic under simms. This game is in the hands of the
defense again.

Chris simms to start second half...

It appears that chris simms will be replacing an injured Kyle orton in
the second half vs the redskins. Denver is on defense to start the half

Orton hurt...

Orton tackled from behind on a 3rd and goal scramble. We may see the
first action from chris simms in the second half.. Denver leads 17-14
at the half against washington...it should probably be at least 24-14
so a relativelt disappointing half and they will need to be better in
the second half

Redskins score on fake field goal/fake punt

Redskins punter hunter smith just threw a td on a shift out of the
punt formation. The redskins telegraphed this before a timeout but
syllable ran the play. Denver's special teams are embarrassing.

Orton to Marshall 74 yard TD

Another wide open deep route to Marshall...Washington is not prepared
for Denver running deep routes. Anybody reading this blog could have
made both of those receptions...

Buckhalter fumbles...

...really bad turnover. Denver's defense comes back strong with a
three and out

Redskins tie it up 7-7

The redskins had an impressive opening drive - converting three third
downs. Our defense has started slow in a few games this season so i'm
not worried yet but the next time the defense is on the field will be
telling...

Orton throws deep!

Maybe the offense is being unleashed this week. First opening drive
td for Denver all year on a 40 yard td pass - orton to mArshall...

Today could be a blowout.

Denver Broncos 2009 Mid-Season Report Card

The Denver Broncos' hit the mid-season point of the year with a surprising 6-2 record, but riding a two game losing streak, in which both losses were pretty brutal. Not many people expected the Broncos to have this many wins all season, much less in the first 8 games. In this post we'll hand out some mid-season grades and provide a general outlook for the second half.

Signature Win: Denver beat New England in Denver in an OT thriller, 20-17. This was the first game where you could be really confident that Denver was for real. Kyle Orton also answered doubters by leading a game tying touchdown drive in the fourth quarter and then leading the game winning FG drive at the beginning of OT. Josh McDaniels got a particularly satisfying win against his former mentor and boss, Bill Belichick.

Second place was the following week when Denver went into San Diego on Monday night and handed San Diego a 34-23 defeat, highlighted by a Kickoff return and a punt return by Eddie Royal. This gave Denver a 3.5 game lead in the AFC West at the time.

Low Point: The low point of the season to date was the bad defeat to Pittsburgh in Denver on Monday night. Nothing went well for Denver during that game: Kyle Orton threw for three interceptions; the running game was entirely shut down; the defense was completely worn out in the second half. This was a second consecutive loss for Denver, and this one was particularly bad because it came at home. Also, it was the second week in a row where Denver's offensive line could not protect Kyle Orton and it exposed some of the weaknesses that the team does have.

Offensive Report Card: The offense has been surprisingly strong this season. It has returned much of the same cast from 2008 but Kyle Orton replaced Pro-bowler Jay Cutler at QB and Buckhalter and Moreno have assumed RB duties from a cast of many injured players from the year before. Brandon Marshall was a major question mark coming into the season but he has turned out to be a major contributor and has caught a couple of game winning touchdowns. The receiving core all the way has been very strong including Eddie Royal, Daniel Graham, and Brandon Stokley. Kyle Orton has performed admirably and was one of the best 4th quarter QBs in the league in weeks 1-6. He's thrown 4 interceptions against 9 TDs and three of those INTs came in one game versus the Steelers. However, there have probably been 4-5 other passes which should have been picked off.

The offensive game plan is made up mostly of short passes, screens, and runs. It's very conservative and the Broncos have yet to really stretch the field. This contributed to the losses vs. Baltimore and Pittsburgh who's defenses were able to crowd the box. This is an issue that will need to be addressed in the second half and Orton will need to address his critics which say he can't throw the ball down the field. To be fair, to date he hasn't really been allowed to try.

The offense has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in the games against New England and San Diego but has regressed since those two games. It could be that the offense has been exposed, or that it just struggled against the 3-4 defenses that Baltimore and Pittsburgh ran.

There are still kinks to be worked out, but Denver's offense has been better than expected.

Offensive Grade: B-

Defensive Report Card: Denver's defense was the best in the league in weeks 1-6. The front-seven, cited before the season as a major weakness, has been terrific and the defense is number 3 in sacks. In most games, the front-seven has gotten stronger throughout the game and shut the door on opposing offenses late in the game with heavy pressure on the QB. Elvis Dumervil has been the star moving from the defensive line in the 4-3 to outside linebacker in the 4-3. He leads the league in sacks, with 10.5. The secondary has been very strong as expected, led by free agent signee Brian Dawkins.

The defense has been largely responsible for the 6-2 record to start the season. It's strength in the second half has been incredible, at one point the team had only allowed 10 second half points over the course of 4 games. In games 1-6, in the second half, opponents converted fewer than 10 second half third down opportunities in total. Denver would not have beaten Cincinatti, New England, Dallas, or San Diego without the great performance turned in by the defense.

The defense would have been graded as an A+ except for the poor second half performances against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Denver was not going to win these games anyway because the offense couldn't score. However, these two games were the culmination of a string of games where the opposing team scored more points each and every week. The Redskin's offense is atrocious so game 9 will be a good opportunity for the defense to get off to a strong second half start.

Defensive Grade: A-

Special teams Report Card:

Josh McDaniels replaced punter Brett Kern two weeks ago after San Diego returned a punt for a TD. The replacement, Mitch Berger, has been pretty bad and actually the punting game has gone from bad to worse. Berger just doesn't seem to have a big leg, and Pittsburgh was able to get some big returns regardless.

Kicker Matt Prater is 13/17 on the season. He is 1/2 from 50+ with a season long of 54; 4/5 from 40-49 yards; he is 2/4 from 30-39; 6/6 from 20-29. He is perfect on PATs. This is acceptable, but the results from 30-39 yards are a bit concerning, given Prater's troubles from that distance last year. He has been acceptable on kickoffs.

The return game has been much improved this year. Eddie ROyal took a punt and a kickoff back in the same game and overall Denver is doing better with field position than we did last year. Twice in game versus New England, Denver's punt team committed a penalty which gave the Patriots a first down. This is a weak spot for the team.

Special Teams Grade: C

Coaching Report Card:

Josh Mcdaniels has done a pretty good job in his first 8 games. The team has generally been well-prepared and Denver has won the half-time adjustments in every game that they won. Also, he as brought some creative wrinkles to the game-plan such as the wild-horses offense. Mike Nolan has done a terrific job turning the defense around and implementing the 3-4 with personnel that is not completely ideally suited for it - especially the lack of a traditional nose tackle. In the second half, I'm interested to see how the coaching staff responds to the team being slightly exposed in the games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Certainly some adjustments will be needed.

Coaching Grade: A

Mid-Season Report Card: If grading on the curve based on pre-season expectations, the Denver Broncos would have an A++. However, on the face of the season itself, there are certainly a few areas of improvement. Denver went through the first 8 games of the season and put themselves in position to win the division adn potentially get a first round bye. For that...

Denver Broncos' mid-season Overall Grade: B+

NFL Power Rankings: Week 9

New England retains the top spot in the week 9 power rankings, while Indianapolis and New Orleans swap the 2 and 3 slots. Denver drops 5 slots to its lowest spot of the season – making it one of the unfortunate big movers for the week. Denver's offense is now solidly below the average value of 1 and at 1.07 is the worst strength of schedule adjusted offense in the top 20. Denver's defensive ranking is dropping as well, although it is still third best in the league, behind New England and Indianapolis. At the bottom of the list, St. Louis, Oakland, and Cleveland continue to set themselves apart as the worst in the league by far, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.

Denver's opponent this week, the Washington Redskins, are ranked 29 for the second week in a row. After Denver's last two bad defeats, it's a must win game.

			Opponents Total			Opponents Total
Rank	Team	Points For	Points Allowed	1/AOP	Points Allowed	Points For	ADP	(1/AOP)+ADP	Change
1	New England	225	1420	0.788889	115	1333	0.690173	1.479061432	NC
2	Indianapolis	217	1554	0.895161	108	1329	0.650113	1.545274157	1
3	New Orleans	303	1463	0.603548	174	1427	0.975473	1.579020875	-1
4	Baltimore	206	1276	0.774272	154	1389	0.886969	1.661240887	NC
5	Cincinnati	180	1331	0.924306	135	1445	0.747405	1.6717104	1
6	Atlanta	202	1360	0.841584	166	1553	0.855119	1.696703283	-1
7	Dallas	217	1446	0.832949	152	1378	0.882438	1.715387625	3
8	Miami	193	1179	0.763601	204	1630	1.001227	1.76482803	NC
9	Philadelphia	219	1517	0.865868	153	1351	0.905996	1.771863139	2
10	New York Jets	177	1493	1.054379	134	1478	0.725304	1.779682997	-1
11	Arizona	198	1426	0.900253	164	1490	0.880537	1.780789438	2
12	Denver	150	1284	1.07	124	1385	0.716245	1.786245487	-5
13	Pittsburgh	195	1487	0.953205	139	1319	0.843063	1.796268055	3
14	Minnesota	244	1478	0.757172	174	1293	1.076566	1.833738256	NC
15	New York Giants	232	1613	0.77251	204	1594	1.151819	1.924328901	2
16	Houston	215	1521	0.786047	188	1452	1.165289	1.951335768	4
17	San Francisco	174	1426	1.024425	174	1468	0.948229	1.97265417	-2
18	Green Bay	215	1572	0.913953	172	1270	1.083465	1.997418055	-6
19	San Diego	206	1432	0.868932	179	1258	1.138315	2.007246824	NC
20	Seattle	167	1445	1.081587	167	1353	0.987435	2.069022155	1
21	Chicago	180	1389	0.964583	191	1368	1.116959	2.081542398	-3
22	Carolina	148	1363	1.151182	196	1509	1.039099	2.190281173	NC
23	Tennessee	148	1254	1.059122	238	1517	1.255109	2.314230389	1
24	Buffalo	123	1451	1.474593	169	1473	0.917855	2.392448214	-1
25	Jacksonville	157	1529	1.217357	198	1296	1.222222	2.43957891	NC
26	Tampa Bay	134	1315	1.226679	231	1492	1.238606	2.465285003	2
27	Kansas City	126	1395	1.383929	205	1428	1.148459	2.532387955	-1
28	Detroit	133	1392	1.308271	237	1494	1.269076	2.577346982	-1
29	Washington	113	1613	1.784292	154	1271	0.848151	2.632443098	NC
30	Cleveland	78	1258	2.016026	209	1493	1.119893	3.135918474	NC
31	Oakland	78	1366	2.189103	201	1390	1.156835	3.345937096	NC
32	St. Louis	77	1384	2.246753	221	1420	1.24507	3.491823669	NC

Glossary:

AOP = Adjusted Offensive Percentage

(1/AOP) = The Inverse of Adjusted Offensive Percentage. This is used to normalize the scores so that lower is better in the final column.

ADP = Adjusted Defensive Percentage

Points For: The total number of points the team has scored in the season to date

Points Allowed: The total number of points the team has given up in the season to date

Opponents Total Points Scored: The total number of points that the team's aggregate opponents have scored in the season to date against all their opponents

Opponents Total Points Allowed: The total number of points that the team's aggregate opponents have allowed against them in the season to date against all their opponents